Research report link：https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/working-papers/chinas-shifting-demographic-geography
Since the sixth national census in 2010, how has China's population changed geographically? What characteristics do these changes have? What possible changes may occur in the future? The seventh national census in 2020 provides excellent analytical material to answer these questions. This thesis identifies key changes and trends in China's population spatial distribution based on absolute and relative changes between the sixth and seventh censuses. It also references data from the 2000 (fifth) census and other databases, such as provincial GDP growth, climate, and transportation networks, to propose possible explanations for these population changes. This thesis aims to serve as a foundational document for supporting research, better explaining the changes observed and providing scientific basis for spatial policy decision-making. Overall, despite limiting factors such as the household registration system and the inactive comfort orientation of immigration, China's spatial population system continues to evolve, and the importance of policies oriented toward local prosperity is decreasing. This spatial change dynamic occurred against the backdrop of significant population shifts between 2010 and 2020, namely an accelerated absolute decline in rural and working-age populations. It is expected that in the early stages of the 2020-2030 census, China's population will undergo historic changes, with absolute population declining, potentially leading to an absolute decline in total urban population by the middle of this century. In fact, by the end of 2022, China's population had already entered a negative growth trend, with changes exceeding expectations based on previous data.
The following are the main conclusions drawn from the analysis of data from the latest seventh census in the thematic paper:
1. The Pearl River Delta has become the engine of China's population growth, driven by explosive growth in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and surrounding prefecture-level cities. In 2020, Guangdong was the most populous province in China, with a population exceeding 126 million. Guangdong's population growth rate is also unparalleled in contemporary China. From 2010 to 2020, the province's annual growth rate was 1.91%, with an additional population of 21.7 million—more than double the growth rate of other provinces—solidifying its position as China's most populous province. Guangdong ranks among the top nationwide in GDP, exports, and retail sales, serving as the engine of China's current economic development. This is explained by its strong private sector (many local companies have become market leaders in China) and the comfortable environment favored by an increasing number of educated job seekers, especially the climate. The Pearl River Delta is at the heart of this growth, with Shenzhen and Guangzhou serving as pillars of the region, playing complementary roles. Shenzhen is China's fastest-growing city, adding over 7 million people in ten years—equivalent to a Hong Kong. Between 2010 and 2020, it became China's most dynamic IT innovation center, playing a global lead in electronic/IT hardware prototyping; It is also home to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Even more remarkable, Guangzhou is becoming a rapidly growing urban center through the continuous repositioning of market forces, featuring higher value-added manufacturing, modern trade and logistics, and a world-class Baiyun Airport (home to China Southern Airlines).
2. The population growth rate and rate of the eastern coastal region continue to lag behind other regions nationwide, accounting for 75% of the national population growth over the past decade. However, its population center is shifting southward, that is, toward the southeastern coastal areas. Here, the southeastern coastal area specifically refers to Zhejiang Province and the entire eastern coastal region to the south. As mentioned above, Zhejiang's rapid growth and the swift rise of the Pearl River Delta are key drivers of the southward shift of population centers in coastal areas. Between 2010 and 2020, Zhejiang's population surged at a compound annual growth rate of 1.71%, increasing by more than 10 million people. Like the Pearl River Delta, Zhejiang has a highly entrepreneurial economy. Its growth is driven by leading consumer-facing IT economies, export economies, and amenities that attract residents and tourists, such as West Lake. Both the Pearl River Delta and Zhejiang are known for having a number of rapidly growing prefecture-level cities (not just their provincial capitals), forming vast and vibrant metropolitan areas.
3. Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin—three 'traditional' municipalities directly under the central government—all experienced the fastest national growth between 2000 and 2010, while moderate growth occurred during 2010-2020. This partly reflects the impact of strict household registration management in Beijing and Shanghai. Most other Chinese cities relaxed household registration controls during this period. Tianjin's economic growth during this period was less than ideal, including the development of Binhai New Area.
4. Between 2010 and 2020, the Southwest region was the only region to see growth in China's population share, although its growth rate was much lower than that of coastal areas. This population growth is city-led, which aligns with the overall situation in China. The relatively rapid population growth in Southwest China may be due to significant investments in network infrastructure in recent years, especially high-speed rail (HSR) and expressways, which have unleashed policy dividends from the Western Development strategy and accelerated the region's development momentum. Other possible drivers of recent population growth in the Southwest include its natural comfort (as wealthy Chinese people are more sensitive to quality of life) and significant investment in alternative energy sources, such as hydropower as well as solar and wind energy (the latter shared with the Northwest). Between 2010 and 2020, Chongqing's population shifted from negative growth to positive growth, although Chengdu experienced positive growth during both periods and its growth rate was still significantly higher than Chongqing's. Chengdu dominates the western region with its airport hub functions, diverse professional and business service economy, and IT capabilities.
5. The Northeast reversed its population growth trend from 2000 to 2010, experiencing a sharp population decline from 2010 to 2020, shrinking by about 11 million people. Even large cities have succumbed to this downward trend. Harbin is the first provincial capital city in China to experience population contraction. Shenyang and the Dalian metropolitan area, especially Shenyang, are exceptions to the rapid population decline in Northeast China. Although these two metropolitan areas are geographically close and connected by highways, a true development corridor has not formed, resulting in less spatial development than expected.
6. The population distribution pattern of desert provinces and autonomous regions in the northwest region based on natural resources is diverging. Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are experiencing population decline. Located in the central northwest region, they have limited comfort (relatively harsh climate), shrinking natural resources, weakening commodity markets, and uncertainties in adapting to desertification threats and economic transformation. The more remote Xinjiang Autonomous Region continues to grow rapidly, mainly driven by its energy sector, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and relatively high natural population growth rates. Cities in the northwest have the highest absolute population growth rate, ranking among the top five nationwide, with Xi'an being the only city significantly exceeding expectations. It boasts reputable universities and research institutions, and is the only city in the Northwest region capable of providing a highly skilled workforce.
7. From 2010 to 2020, the population in the central region continued to grow slowly or stagnantly at a rate of 0.22%. The population decline is currently limited to Shanxi Province in the north. Meanwhile, large cities in the central region are growing rapidly, offsetting the significant shrinkage in rural populations. Zhengzhou's growth rate is especially fast (the birthplace of large-scale manufacturing, such as the Foxconn factory, employs about 300,000 workers, and densely populated, relatively poor people from the province's hinterland easily migrate to Zhengzhou). Other central cities with population growth significantly exceeding expectations from 2010 to 2020 include Wuhan, Hefei, and Changsha.
8. China's population is increasingly concentrated in a series of large cities, namely provincial cities, provincial capitals, and sub-provincial cities, which reinforces the population constellation-type urban distribution pattern. Fast-growing cities outside these major cities are either third-tier cities within rapidly growing urban clusters in the eastern coastal provinces or central cities in remote, sparsely populated western areas. Considering that China's population will decline for the rest of this century and rural areas will continue to hollowing out, these large cities will continue to accommodate more people, further accelerating China's constellation-style population distribution. The decline in total population will lead to very few "sources of population" for future small cities, rural areas, and corridor-style development.
To explore this trend, we studied the relationship between absolute population growth or absolute decrease in regions of China during 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 and the expected population changes. Areas experiencing larger-than-expected population growth are mainly concentrated in major urban areas, and limited to those regions. This includes metropolitan areas along the eastern coast, as well as parts of the central and southwestern regions. The difference between the eastern coastal region and the central and southwestern regions is that the population growth of coastal cities geographically extends to neighboring jurisdictions where absolute populations also grow, continuing along corridors connecting major cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Fuzhou. Meanwhile, the central and southwestern metropolitan areas are often surrounded by areas where population growth is below expected levels. From 2010 to 2020, the five major metropolitan areas performed best (with 3 million more people than expected), ranked in descending order as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, and Xi'an.
9. Based on the 2010-2020 census analysis, spatial changes in China's population mainly occur in relevant regions within urban agglomerations, rather than at the broader regional level.
10. The area of population shrinkage in China is increasing sharply. In 2020, calculated by prefecture-level cities, China's 5.18 million square kilometers—60% of the national land area—experienced population contraction. By 2010, this corresponding area was 3.1 million square kilometers.
Author:
Professor Douglas Webster at Arizona State University, USA
Cai Jianming, researcher at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Studies, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Larissa Muller, Associate Professor at the University of Calgary, Canada
Zhang Feifei, Assistant Professor at Northern Arizona University, USA
The data compilation and GIS maps for this special report were completed
by Chen Jinglei and Liu Yuxuan of Beijing Union University
March 2023
