This article is compiled from the thematic report "High-Quality Development, Carbon Neutrality, and Territorial Spatial Planning" at the Beijing Forum sub-forum on December 3, 2022, and has been reviewed by speaker Mr. Li Xiaojiang.
Speakers:
Li Xiaojiang, National Master of Engineering Survey and Design, professor-level urban planner and former director of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, and special advisor to the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development. He has led coordinated development planning for urban clusters in the Pearl River Delta, research on Beijing's urban spatial development strategy, national urban system planning, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering's "Research on Urbanization at the County (City) Level" in China.
Abstract:
This report discusses from four aspects how China can achieve high-quality development and achieve carbon neutrality goals through its territorial spatial planning system. The section "Social Change and Characteristics of Population Urbanization" discusses changes in China's population urbanization, while the section "Changes in Urban and Rural Residents' Consumption and Future Growth" discusses changes in residents' consumption levels. These not only reflect a shift in development logic but also call for higher-quality development paths; The "Contradiction Between Carbon Neutrality Goals and Growth in Urban-Rural Life and Passenger Transport Demand" and the "Urban Development Model Transformation" section explore China's high-quality development path from the resident and urban levels, respectively, analyzing the difficulties and directions of China's carbon neutrality goals.
Territorial spatial planning is a very new and comprehensive planning system. It is not simply a sum of urban planning and land use planning, but a fundamental change compared to traditional planning. The establishment of the urban and rural planning system stems from the need for orderly urban-rural development and healthy urban development. The background for land use planning is to ensure food security and the scale of arable land, while the basic starting point for establishing the territorial spatial planning system is ecological civilization and the modernization of spatial governance.
Territorial spatial planning guides the new era's "One Excellence and Three Highs." "One Excellence" refers to "ecological priority," which is the core concept and fundamental starting point of territorial spatial planning; The "high-quality development" of the "three highs" requires us to recognize the characteristics of development stages and the transformation of development models, improving the efficiency of land spatial utilization; "High-quality living" requires understanding population structure characteristics and changes in people's needs, and optimizing the allocation of land and spatial resources; "High-level governance" requires a shift from management to governance, strengthening comprehensive and all-element governance of territorial space. The discussion will be conducted from four perspectives:
1. Social Change and Characteristics of Population Urbanization
China's urbanization of the population shows several characteristics:
(1) Slow population growth, slowing urbanization growth. Overall, China's population has reached a plateau.
(2) Decline in demographic dividend, changes in employment structure. This has led to two obvious consequences: first, a decline in total labor force and a narrowing window of demographic dividend; Second, the deep aging is a severe challenge, leading to a high dependency ratio problem, which China is not yet prepared for.
(3) Changes in the structure of new jobs, and the benefits of engineer employment are emerging. The quality of migrant workers continues to improve, and college graduates have become the main source of new employment. On one hand, factories and enterprises cannot recruit workers; on the other, graduates cannot find jobs. This indicates a structural contradiction between China's employment supply and demand.
(4) Population movement shows networked and regionalized characteristics, with increased population movement within the region.
(5) The pattern of population urbanization and the spatial pattern of national territory are tending toward rebalancing. From the development history, the population in densely populated urban areas continues to concentrate, but marginal benefits are declining; The development of non-densely populated areas is accelerating and will eventually enter a rebalancing process as the economy grows.
Based on the previous descriptions and analysis, it can be seen that the logic of urban development in China has changed significantly compared to the previous 30 years, mainly manifested in three fundamental changes. First is the change in the main development drivers: With the formation and expansion of the middle class, college graduates have become the main force for new social employment, migrant workers have improved their ability to choose, and high-skilled labor has become the main force behind urban development. Second, there is a change in development models: from the three driving forces of investment, consumption, and exports, to supply-side reform and optimized allocation of supply factors, and finally to innovation-driven growth. Finally, there is a change in development logic: previously, investment promotion attracted enterprises, thereby attracting employment and talent; now, improving urban service levels attracts talent, leading enterprises to settle in and industries to enter (Figure 1). Today's companies follow talent, which prompts us to reflect: what kind of cities does China need to meet the needs of settlers, employment, and living needs?
Figure 1: Changes in the logic of urban development in China
2. Changes and future growth in urban and rural residents' consumption
China's income level and consumption expenditure level are issues that cannot be ignored on the path to carbon neutrality. The key question is: what changes will occur in the income and consumption of urban and rural residents, and to what level will they reach? Currently, there are two main characteristics of urban and rural residents' consumption expenditure in China:
(1) The gap in residents' consumption levels compared to developed countries is significant. China's per capita consumption expenditure and its proportion are both lower than those of developed countries, accounting for less than 30% of per capita GDP, about half of those in developed countries. This is because China's GDP growth mainly relies on infrastructure and real estate investment, rather than resident consumption. However, investment-driven development cannot last forever, and real estate cannot be built indefinitely; ultimately, it must shift toward residents' consumption.
(2) Residents' consumption is still at the stage of meeting basic living needs such as clothing, food, housing, and transportation. Basic consumption expenditures for food, clothing, housing, and transportation in the U.S. account for about 50%, while in China and Mexico, this is about 80%. Consumption in health, healthcare, culture, education, and leisure has just begun, leaving huge room for upgrading (see Figure 2).
If China's economic structure continues to optimize and the proportion of consumption keeps rising, the demand for territorial spatial resources and energy generated by consumption will be enormous.
Figure 2: Comparison of per capita consumption expenditure compositions by country
3. The contradiction between carbon neutrality goals and the growing demand for urban and rural living and intercity passenger transport
With the Paris Agreement coming into effect in 2016, China needs to consider what approach it should take to achieve carbon neutrality. According to the diagram of changes in energy consumption in countries around the world (Figure 3), and by comparing China's carbon neutrality goals, development stages, and energy levels horizontally with those of other countries, it can be found that China is still in a phase of rapid economic and energy consumption growth. On one hand, overall demand is still growing; on the other, carbon neutrality targets have been set as challenges for ourselves. However, carbon neutrality goals cannot be abandoned, as they are the only path for China to achieve safer and more sustainable modernization.
Figure 3: Comparison of changes in energy consumption by country
It is estimated that carbon peaking in China's energy and industrial sectors is relatively easy to achieve, but it will be difficult for residential living and intercity passenger transport sectors to reach carbon peaking by 2030. Compared to carbon reduction in the energy and industrial sectors, future demand for daily life and intercity passenger transport will grow significantly. These two areas are the key challenges China should pay more attention to in achieving carbon neutrality. Cities with higher income levels have a clear growth trend in energy consumption, with more than doubling in the past 20 years. Based on empirical analysis of carbon emission measurement and structure across four cities and five communities, it can be found that the main shares of per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions per unit building area are residential energy use and transportation. Overall, the main pressure to reduce carbon emissions in China comes from the living sector, with significant differences in carbon emissions across different cities and communities.
At the community level, decarbonization pathways are divided into four areas: domestic energy use, resident travel, municipal and daily life, and greening carbon sequestration, each representing different green and low-carbon technologies and lifestyles (Figure 4). For China to achieve carbon reduction in the living sector, it should rely on the application of green technologies, green materials, and changes in green lifestyles, rather than lowering residents' living standards or saving basic daily needs. China does not need low-level carbon neutrality by reducing demand; it should be a high-level, fully rewarding, and green lifestyle pathway to decarbonization.
Figure 4: Decarbonization pathways at the community level
4. Transformation of urban development models
Figure 5: Comparison of China's old and new development models
China's old development model was characterized by dependence on land finance and real estate, which led to imbalances in the allocation of land and spatial resources, disordered development models, and social interests imbalanced. In the process of transitioning from the old development model to the new one, the key lies in how to achieve balanced resource allocation and achieve carbon neutrality goals through reforms in taxation, fiscal, and financial systems (see Figure 5). Territorial spatial planning should promote the joint improvement of the four major capitals in Chinese society.
(1) Improve the level of material and spatial capital. The allocation of spatial resources should facilitate the formation, accumulation, preservation, and appreciation of high-quality material and spatial capital. Through rational allocation and control of spatial resources, building high-quality urban and rural settlements and buildings that meet future development needs is an important starting point and core value of territorial spatial planning.
(2) Enhance the level of social capital. The allocation of spatial resources should balance efficiency and fairness, paying attention to social development at different regions and levels. We should allocate resources more fairly and justly, enhancing the city's inclusiveness, diversity, and selectivity for people with different needs and abilities, promoting social mobility and harmonious development.
(3) Enhance human capital levels. Human capital is the core of modernization and international competitiveness. Spatial resource allocation should improve the supply of education, healthcare, health, elderly care, and child care facilities in cities to enhance the country's future human capital level.
(4) Enhance the level of natural capital. Green and low-carbon is China's only choice for urbanization, a solemn commitment to the international community, and an effective way for urban and rural residents to share green well-being and achieve a better life. Territorial spatial resource allocation can promote national low-carbon and green development by guiding the rational gathering and distribution of population and economic activities, optimizing the layout and transformation of urban and rural settlements, and transforming development models.
Compiled by: Luo Yedian
